Introduction
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could significantly alter the regulatory landscape for artificial intelligence (AI) in the United States. This shift is expected to favor a more business-friendly and less interventionist approach [2], contrasting with the current administration’s focus on stringent oversight and safety measures for AI development.
Description
With Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House [5], the regulatory landscape for artificial intelligence (AI) in the United States is expected to shift towards a more business-friendly [2], less interventionist approach [2]. Trump has pledged to repeal the AI Executive Order established by President Biden in October 2023, which aimed to ensure the safe and responsible development of AI technology through extensive oversight [4]. This order included the creation of the US AI Safety Institute (AISI) and mandated reporting requirements for companies regarding their AI training methodologies and security measures [1]. The anticipated repeal could dismantle critical safeguards designed to mitigate risks associated with AI, address algorithmic bias [2] [4] [8], and enhance federal oversight of powerful AI models [8].
The expected changes will likely involve a rollback of previous executive orders and agency rules that established binding AI standards [2], bias testing [2], and transparency mandates [2]. The emphasis will shift towards voluntary industry self-governance rather than strict federal regulations [2], relying on existing frameworks like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Under Biden’s order, NIST was tasked with developing guidance for identifying and rectifying flaws in AI models [1], including biases [1] [6]. However, the focus on AI discrimination protections is likely to be deprioritized [7], raising concerns among experts about the adequacy of this approach in addressing risks related to public safety [4], data privacy [4], and algorithmic bias [2] [4] [8]. The use of the Defense Production Act to enhance transparency in AI development may also see a reduction [7].
Existing legal frameworks [2], such as antitrust and consumer protection laws [2], will take precedence over new AI-specific legislation [2]. The scrutiny of algorithmic bias and discriminatory AI applications is expected to lessen [2], moving from proactive auditing to case-by-case enforcement [2], which will reduce requirements for companies to demonstrate fairness in their AI systems [2]. Criticism from some Republican lawmakers has emerged [6], labeling the previous administration’s requirements as executive overreach and equating NIST’s efforts with censorship [6]. The Republican platform advocates for AI development that supports free speech and human flourishing [4], but some researchers warn that reducing regulations on advanced AI training could jeopardize public safety [4].
In contrast [3] [5], a potential Harris administration would likely continue the regulatory framework established under Biden [3], emphasizing the importance of AI safety and innovation [3]. Harris aims to enhance the National AI Research Resource to support startups and researchers [3], suggesting a commitment to maintaining a structured approach to AI governance [3]. In the absence of federal regulation [1] [8], state governments may increase their own regulatory efforts, potentially complicating compliance for global AI companies [8]. For instance [1], Tennessee has enacted protections against AI voice cloning [1], while Colorado has established a tiered oversight system for AI deployment [1]. California has also introduced several AI safety bills [1], including one that requires companies to disclose their AI training methods [1].
Guidance may be drawn from previous executive orders promoting the use of trustworthy AI in federal agencies [2], emphasizing principles such as legality [2], performance [2], reliability [2], safety [1] [2] [3] [4] [6] [7], transparency [2] [7], and accountability [2]. Allies of Trump at the America First Policy Institute have expressed intentions to prioritize AI development in the US through a new executive order aimed at reducing AI regulations and enhancing military AI capabilities [1]. The influence of technology figures like Elon Musk [2] [8], who leads xAI and has been critical of major AI firms while advocating for safety measures [7], may also shape this regulatory environment [2]. Musk’s relationship with Trump could further impact AI policy, particularly regarding copyright issues related to generative AI and the data used for training large language models.
Overall, companies are likely to experience increased flexibility in deploying AI systems with diminished government oversight [2], which could foster innovation but also necessitates vigilance regarding the risks associated with AI use [2]. The potential repeal of Biden’s AI regulatory initiatives raises uncertainties about the future of the AISI, which has secured funding and international collaborations [1]. Additionally, the potential for tighter export controls on AI technologies [6], particularly concerning China [6] [7], may impact funding and development within the industry [6], further complicating the regulatory landscape for AI. Calls for a pause in AI development emphasize the need for stronger regulation to mitigate the risks associated with superintelligent AI systems [4]. The presence of AI experts in either administration is deemed crucial for effective policy development [3], as neither candidate possesses extensive expertise in the field [3].
Conclusion
The potential shift in AI regulation under a Trump administration could lead to increased flexibility for businesses but also raises concerns about the adequacy of self-governance in addressing AI-related risks. The contrasting approach of a Harris administration would likely maintain a focus on safety and innovation. The evolving regulatory landscape will have significant implications for AI development, requiring careful consideration of both innovation and public safety.
References
[1] https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/11/trump-victory-signals-major-shakeup-for-us-ai-regulations/
[2] https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/ai-regulation-under-a-second-trump-term-8060992/
[3] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidency-impact-ai-artificial-intelligence-2024-10
[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03667-w
[5] https://www.rstreet.org/commentary/ai-policy-in-the-trump-administration-and-congress-after-the-2024-elections/
[6] https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/06/what-trumps-victory-could-mean-for-ai-regulation/
[7] https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/8/24291333/second-trump-tech-policy-antitrust-ai-crypto
[8] https://www.wired.com/story/trump-tech-policy/
